CO2 emissions in Italy: concern about the recent peak

Italy’s road traffic related CO2 emissions have recorded a steady increase, which is beginning to cause serious concern, especially with regard to meeting European decarbonisation targets.

In recent years, emissions related to the road transport sector have moved in the opposite direction to European and national climate policies, registering an increase of +2.9% between 2019 and 2024.

If this increase is not significantly reversed, the risk is that it will gravely compromise Italy’s ability to meet the European target of a 43% reduction in emissions by 2030, as set out in the ‘Fit for 55’ reform package.

An ageing, heavier car fleet

One of the main causes of this growth in Italy’s CO2 emissions is that the fleet of vehicles on the road are not only ageing but also increasing in size.  While Italy counts a total of around 47 million vehicles in circulation (a very high figure pro capita and one of the highest in Europe), an even more worrying aspect is the characteristics of those vehicles.

According to available data, a significant proportion of cars are older models, including many over 20 years old.  Although they account for only 10% of the total kilometres travelled, these vehicles often feature obsolete technologies with much lower emissions standards compared to those of modern vehicles.

The problem is further exacerbated by the rising number of heavier vehicles on the road, due to the growing popularity of SUVs.  Their weight is a decisive factor in their level of emissions, especially for vehicles that run on an internal combustion engine.

While with electric vehicles, the impact of this weight is partially mitigated by regenerative breaking, in traditional engines, the greater load leads to a direct increase in fuel consumption and therefore in emissions.

So Italy faces a twofold problem:

• a vehicle fleet which is too old, featuring outdated technologies;
• a vehicle fleet which is too heavy, caused by the boom in SUVs and crossover vehicles.

This combination is leading inevitably to a gradual worsening of CO2 emission levels in Italy, despite significant improvements in vehicle technologies.

Rising fuel consumption: an alarm bell

Another critical element is fossil fuel consumption.  Total petrol and diesel consumption has risen by +3.5% in five years.  This figure reflects a worrying trend: the recarbonisation of road transport, which represents a step in the opposite direction compared to efforts to achieve climate targets.

If fuel consumption continues to rise, emissions will inevitably increase too, but the problem is not only an environmental one.  From an economic point of view, it is clear that dependence on fossil fuels exposes Italy to fluctuations in international prices and slows its energy transition.

Some more pessimistic forecasts suggest that this tendency could well continue in the coming years, further complicating efforts to meet the established targets by 2030.

Vehicles currently in circulation, fewer vehicles but not green enough

One of the most interesting analyses focuses on the actual number of vehicles currently in use.  Thanks to new calculation methods based on multiple data sources, it emerges that around 12% of cars and 32% of motorbikes are actually not in use or in circulation.  This means that the total number of vehicles on the roads is lower than official numbers suggest.  Nevertheless, environmental classification records show that the vehicles in circulation still have a significant impact but are slightly more up to date than previously thought.

However, this does not alter the main focus of concern: CO₂ emissions in Italy are continuing to rise. Unlike polluting buildings, the quantity of carbon dioxide does not depend on the geographic area or the concentration of traffic, but on the total energy consumed by the transport sector. So, even if the effects on NOx and PM2.5 levels might be somewhat less serious than predicted, the climate issue remains an urgent one.

Future scenarios and strategic solutions to reduce CO₂ emissions in Italy

In light of the situation described above, the forecasts for 2030 present a less than reassuring scenario. The most optimistic estimates forecast that Italy will only achieve a reduction in CO2 emissions of -24% compared to 2005, while in the worst case scenario, the reduction will be a mere -10%.

Both figures are a long way off the -43% imposed by the European Union. If the current trend is not reversed, Italy risks being further distanced from the decarbonisation process.  Furthermore, it should be noted that the road haulage sector has a considerable impact on CO₂ emissions in Italy, especially heavy goods vehicles.  In fact, that sector:

• is still heavily dependent on internal combustion technologies;
• involves a very low number of electric vehicles;
• is growing in volume due to the boom in e-commerce and logistics

Reducing emissions in that sector will be essential in order to meet national climate targets.  Despite the complex scenario, there are some solutions and strategic routes which could permit this trend to be inverted.  Some tangible proposals have emerged as follows:

• the promotion of biofuels: advanced biofuels represent an immediate solution to reduce emissions caused by heavy goods vehicles, as conversion to electric vehicles will take much longer;
• the spread of eco-driving: the adoption of a a more efficient driving style can reduce consumption by 5-15%. This is a simple measure at virtually zero cost, but it requires training and information campaigns;
• a reduction in the use of over-large cars:  attempting to reduce the surge in super-heavy SUVs is one of the key factors in reducing fuel consumption and improving road safety. Incentives and taxes calculated according to vehicle weight could encourage drivers to choose more efficient vehicles;
• optimised commercial vehicle loads: reducing needless journeys, optimising deliveries and improving urban logistics are all measures that significantly reduce emissions;
• technological neutrality: adopting a technologically neutral approach by considering the entire emissions lifecycle (WTW – well-to-wheel), enables not only ideologically preferable but also genuinely efficient solutions to be selected.