Technological Evolution: what can we expect in the next few years?

What can we expect in the next few years as regards technological evolution? Electric cars which drive themselves and houses which are totally self-sufficient for energy are just two of the many new developments capable of changing the world.

Tony Seba spoke about this and much more at the opening of the Swedbank Nordic Energy Summit in Oslo: one of the principal events on clean energy at a global level.

In order to better understand the power of progress, it is sufficient to consider how things changed in just 13 years at the start of the twentieth century: in 1900 horse-drawn carriages were almost the exclusive form of transport, but by 1913 they had all been replaced by cars.

We can find another similar example in the mobile telephone industry: despite the experts at McKinsey forecasting in the eighties that by the beginning of the twenty-first century there would be approximately 900 thousand cell phones in the USA, the actual number reached 109 million units (120 times the original estimate).

According to the experts, all this was made possible by the spread and evolution of technology, which tends to keep improving as far as performance is concerned, while at the same time becoming less costly.

This is better illustrated by Moore’s Law, according to which the calculation capacity of PCs is able to double every 2 years. This evolution has also influenced the costs of the storage and supply of electric power, which fell by 14% per year between 1995 and 2010.

However, the best example of this theory is that of Tesla electric cars. The differences between these cars and those with endothermic engines lies in the fact that the former are more efficient, with costs per km which are ten times less, they require less maintenance and are much faster.

In cities such as Phoenix in Arizona, some companies involved in the development of self-sufficient vehicles are about to launch the first driverless taxi project:this will provide citizens with opportunities to make huge savings, because by spending just a few euros per journey they can avoid all car maintenance expenses.

These are just a few of the major changes brought about by technological evolution: new developments which have transformed the habits of our society, while at the same time improving the quality of life of individuals.

Translated by Joanne Beckwith