Global warming and air travel: why it will be more dangerous
Several studies have shown that pollution could lead to an increase in the number of air accidents, making air travel much more dangerous than it is today. The continuous accumulation of CO2 at high altitudes may cause turbulence which is impossible to foresee, causing aircraft to suddenly lose altitude.
Difficult situations have already been encountered in the past and are now becoming more frequent. Among the most dramatic examples was flight United Airlines 826 Tokyo to Honolulu which had to make a U-turn after suddenly plunging thousands of metres and flight Aeroflot SU270 Moscow to Bangkok which was struck by turbulence in 1997, causing 27 passengers to be flung against the plane’s ceiling.
Air travel is one of the biggest sources of pollution
Air travel is undoubtedly one of the most convenient ways to travel. It connects every corner of the earth and transports millions of passengers around the world every day. Nevertheless, air travel remains a major source of pollution.
Approximately 2% of the total CO2 produced by human activity is caused by aircraft emissions, signifying that air travel is a major contributor to global warming. To understand the scale of its impact, compare the fact that one flight with 88 passengers on board produces around 285 grams of CO2 per passenger per kilometre, while an average car emits 42 grams per passenger per kilometre.
Data for 2018 indicates a total of 918 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emitted into the atmosphere by commercial flights, with long haul flights the worst offenders. The outlook for the future is no better: it is estimated that pollution produced by planes could triple by the year 2050.
The link between global warming and turbulence
Scientific studies have shown that a strong link exists between global warming and the increase in clear air turbulence. The greater the amount of carbon dioxide present in the atmosphere, the higher the risk that aircraft will encounter abnormalities during flight, which can lead to very serious consequences.
If, as predicted, the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere triples between 2050 and 2080, it has been calculated that we can expect an increase in moderate turbulence of around 94%, a rise in moderate to serious turbulence of 127% and an increase in serious turbulence of around 149%.
This data, which refers to an average altitude of 12000 metres, confirms the increased danger of future air travel. In order to limit the damage and reduce the risk of serious incidents, it is therefore essential to improve the accuracy of turbulence forecasting.
Consequences for the future of air travel
Global warming will have significant consequences on flights, especially intercontinental ones. The growing risk of accidents is only the tip of the iceberg and will potentially cause complications affecting various routes and considerable financial damage to airlines.
To avoid the growing turbulence caused by pollution, aircrafts will be forced to change routes frequently, increasing delays and fuel consumption. Furthermore, there could be more accidents due to these abnormal phenomena, involving injury to passengers who will probably sue the airlines for compensation.
If appropriate steps are not taken immediately, air travel will face one of the darkest periods in its history. Investing in green fuel is already a step in the right direction, but it will take a concerted global effort to guarantee safe, low-risk air travel.
Translated by Joanne Beckwith
