Air conditioning: market forecasts 2021-2028
The current boom in air conditioning is so great that the sector recorded a turnover of approximately 123.19 billion dollars in the year 2020 alone. Furthermore, according to recent research, this positive trend is set to continue until at least 2028, with market forecasts predicting an annual increase in manufacturer revenues of 5.5%.
Demand for air conditioning systems in countries currently considered to be ‘developing’ is rising constantly; an interesting phenomenon, with causes involving many different factors, which we will examine in more detail below.
Reasons behind the air conditioning boom
Among key reasons for growth in this sector is the ongoing rapid expansion in nations such as India, China and Indonesia, where increases in average disposable income are leading to a rise in demand for ‘mod cons’ such as air conditioning (it is estimated that these territories alone will account for half the total air conditioning units sold by the year 2025).
Another determining factor which is encouraging populations around the world to purchase air conditioning is the rise in global temperatures. Global warming is especially evident in the United States, Australia and Siberia, which, unsurprisingly, are some of the countries where demand for air conditioning systems is highest.
The Covid-19 pandemic has also played a key role in the resurgence of the domestic air conditioning market; the numerous lockdowns which have obliged thousands of people to work from home, have increased the need to create comfortable homes, equipped with systems to ensure the wellbeing of their occupants, such as air conditioning.
Market forecasts
A more detailed analysis of this growth provides reliable market forecasts which will help investors identify the best strategies for the period up to 2028. An article published in Refrigeration Industry (available here), provides in-depth analysis and outlines the most likely future scenarios in this sector.
Although more split and multi-split conditioning systems are generally sold in developing countries, the quest for new quality standards is already leading to increased demand for mono-bloc and cabinet air conditioners, destined mainly for use in smaller spaces such as restaurants, telecommunication centres, private houses and small rooms.
Demand is also rising sharply for VRF (Variable Refrigerant Flow) systems, used principally in large public buildings such as clinics, hospitals, concert halls, hotels and other commercial spaces, as well as for smart conditioning systems, which provide significant improvements in energy efficiency and enhanced user control.
Despite this positive trend across the sector, governments around the world are starting to focus more closely on the issue of energy and, in light of this, it is logical that if this growth is to be sustained, air conditioning systems must become greener. In some countries, associations have been formed, consisting of companies who share specific objectives, such as:
- promoting energy efficiency;
- reducing energy demand;
- reducing the environmental impact of air conditioning systems.
Considering that on the one hand, the large scale use of air conditioning is forecast by 2028, while on the other hand planet-saving legislation is likely to become much stricter, it is essential to find a balance to ensure that both ecological and technological needs are met, in order to avoid a potential slowdown of growth in the air-conditioning sector.
Companies wishing to maintain a high turnover in the immediate future, must therefore focus on innovation now, by studying conversion systems and methods which are able to transform pre-existing systems into smart systems. While this is no easy task, it has now become virtually indispensable.
Translated by Joanne Beckwith
