Will artificial intelligence change the global economy?
A strong correlation between AI and economics is expected in the near future. Considering that the adoption of technologies based on artificial intelligence has undergone a dramatic increase in the last few years, it is logical to suppose that this trend will continue for the rest of 2022 at least.
Estimates suggest that in the current year, companies in Western Europe alone will spend in the region of 77.6 billion dollars on equipping themselves with cognitive AI systems, based on machine learning. Italy is already heading down that path, having invested 17 million euros in 2018 and almost 25 million euros in 2019.
How AI influences the economy
Proof of the strong link between AI and the economy is the fact that most investors in these technologies are in the banking sector, closely followed by retail and manufacturing. This can be connected to AI’s ability to generate advantages in the production of goods and services and its considerable impact on the world of work.
It is difficult to calculate an exact figure, as there are many variables to be taken into account which are difficult to predict, especially when it comes to long term forecasts. Regardless of the numbers however, it is easy to see how AI is gradually taking on a central role.
If we examine the analyses carried out in recent studies, it is apparent how the adoption of AI has brought enormous benefits, especially for:
- the IT sector (+58%);
- team operations (+49%);
- product development (+43%).
If we also consider the specific case of its integration within company organisational processes, it is clear that artificial intelligence has contributed to:
- improving productivity of the work force (+20%);
- generating innovation and profit growth (+18%);
- speeding up decisional processes (+17%).
As mentioned above, this data suggests that the positive trend generated by this technology is destined to continue in the future. It is estimated that AI’s impact on the global economy will lead to an increase of around 13 trillion dollars in 2030.
It would seem to be among those events which are capable of revolutionising the world, as happened in 1800 with the introduction of the steam engine, or robots in the nineteen nineties and in 2000 with the spread of Information Technology.
Possible disadvantages of artificial intelligence
Despite the encouraging data mentioned above, there are also some points to bear in mind regarding the potentially negative impacts of AI on the economy. In first place is the elevated cost of accessing and using this technology.
High prices risk further widening the digital divide between different nations. With this in mind, states with stronger economies could expect to see an increase of 20-25%, while developing economies would record a mere 5-15% increase.
Another issue linked to artificial intelligence regard potential job losses. It is to be expected that large companies will try to exploit AI to the full, to increase production while cutting costs.
The first step towards this objective would involve the replacement of workers carrying out repetitive tasks with intelligent machines. This, however, is just a hypothesis, as companies could in any case choose to retrain their staff and allocate them new roles in the company.
In conclusion, it is true that AI and the economy will continue to influence each other in years to come, but it will take some time before we can fully understand how this phenomenon will evolve.
Translated by Joanne Beckwith
