Climate change and global warming; 2020 the warmest year on record
Climate change is an ever-present problem which is gradually getting worse, due in no small part to the collective failure to meet certain globally established targets. The first tangible data is the fact that 2020 has been one of the warmest years ever recorded.
This additional confirmation of a difficult situation has encouraged some countries to increase efforts to follow the directives set out in the Paris Agreement, by imposing drastic measures designed to reduce emissions: essential strategies, the results of which will shape the future of the entire planet.
2020 temperature trends
Following extensive monitoring and largescale data gathering from several sources, including organisations such as NASA, climatologists have been able to establish that temperatures recorded in the years from 2016 to 2020 were the highest ever.
An article in Carbon Brief (accessible via this link), contains all full details of the data gathered, with illustrative graphs and more information about the consequences of climate change for the environment. Data relating to 2020 can be categorised into five main areas as follows:
- Record surface temperatures;
- Record levels of heat in the oceans;
- Record heat registered by satellites;
- Second lowest level of ice volume in the Arctic sea;
- Further rises in sea level.
In the second half of 2020, the phenomenon known as La Niña led to a fall in global temperatures. Experts predict that this cooling will continue during the first half of 2021 at least, meaning that temperatures recorded in the current year will be lower than those of the previous year.
Short-term advantages of climate change
A group of scientists, backed by the CONSTRAIN project, financed by the EU, have put together some theories sustaining that the effects of drastic measures to combat pollution could already become apparent in the short-term. This idea stems from the fact that climate simulations carried out up to now did not take into account natural climate variations.
An interesting article in Zerosottozero (accessible via this link) explains how, if we consider these variables, the objective of maintaining the level of global warming at 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels would not only bring long-term benefits, but would also have a considerable impact in the short-term.
In the next 20 years in particular, global warming levels could be as many as 13 times less than in a scenario without any preventative measures being introduced. In order to demonstrate this hypothesis, scientists have decided to take a dual approach in their study of the data.
The first step is based on the comparison of latest climate models from phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). Only models closely reflecting current global warming levels were chosen.
The second approach on the other hand, combines thousands of simulations, using a climate model known as the Finite Amplitude Impulse Response (FaIR), which also takes natural climate variations into consideration when producing forecasts.
By comparing the results of the two approaches and entering the NDC value (contributions by individual countries who signed up to the Paris goals), scientists have been able to demonstrate that the short-term effects on global warming levels are not just theoretical speculation.
Translated by Joanne Beckwith
