Price increases of high GWP refrigerants
High GWP refrigerants could soon become scarce and their price is expected to increase due to factors such as limited stocks, international pressure and the gradual reduction of HFC quotas. According to experts at the AIRAH Refrigeration 2022 fair, such tangible reasons should motivate contractors to abandon R404A and similar refrigerants immediately.
Concerns regarding a potential spike in costs had already been voiced in January 2018, when the gradual reduction in the use of hydrofluorocarbons took hold, as set out in the European regulations on fluorinated gases. So far, no unusual price fluctuations have been recorded, but several indicators suggest that the situation is likely to change rapidly.
R404A remains the most popular choice
According to data presented during the conference, R404A remains the most popular choice for low and medium temperature refrigeration, such as supermarket displays, cold cabinets, the refrigeration of commercial vehicles and process refrigeration.
The large amount of stock which has accumulated since 2018 has prevented many countries from feeling the effects of restrictions on the use of F-Gases, especially those relating to the increased costs of high GWP refrigerants.
This has created a certain ‘sense of stability’, which has encouraged producers of HVAC products to continue selling their clients solutions that run on this cheaper refrigerant.
By early next year however, stocks will start to run out, resulting in a deficit of over 500 tonnes of refrigerant. This will lead inevitably to price increases and the need to find alternative, less costly solutions.
How will the high GWP refrigerant market change?
Experts are already talking of an expected shock across the entire refrigeration market, which will be jolted not only by uncontrolled price increases but also by the fact that many companies will need to adapt their equipment to enable it to function using low GWP refrigerants (the most widespread alternatives being R448A and R449A).
Of course, this operation is not easy to carry out, especially due to the high number of plants which are unsuitable for adaptation via retrofit. In light of this situation, experts in the HVAC sector have put forward several interesting proposals, aimed at dealing with this imminent crisis.
One important example involves refrigerant recycling, which could produce an estimated 100-200 tonnes of regenerated HFCs. This value would at least limit potential damage and is encouraging some companies to view abandoning R404A not as a shock but as an opportunity for change.
According to a recent report, more and more governments are starting to explore the problem of high GWP refrigerants. Even though, at present, the most obvious solution would be the imposition of a ban on the sale of equipment that runs on them, the debate is still ongoing and no decision has so far been taken.
How to deal with the potential crisis
Experts advise that HVAC companies should discuss the situation with their clients and provide a detailed explanation of the economic impact that choosing one of the refrigerants which are at risk could have on their business in the long term.
Considering that the potential savings offered by R404A are less significant in light of the facts that emerged at the AIRAH Refrigeration 2022 event, it is much more appropriate to advise clients to focus investment on refrigerants which are less likely to be the subject of future restrictions.
Furthermore, it is essential that those involved in these operations acquire knowledge of replacement products, retrofit processes and methods of optimising the systems, to enable them to create solutions in accordance with current environmental and climate regulations.
